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NEW QUESTION 95
Which of the following contributed to the systemic failure during the credit crisis that began in 2007?
- A. All of the above
- B. Inadequate attention paid to liquidity risk
- C. Stress tests that did not stress enough
- D. Moral hazard from the strategy of 'originate and distribute'
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
All the factors listed above contributed to systemic failure. Liquidity risk was not on the radar of regulators, and was a second priority for risk managers, and most of the focus was on capital adequacy as liquidity was thought to be an unlikely problem. Liquidity, regardless of capital adequacy, was the primary cause of failure of a number of institutions during the crisis.
Similarly, stress tests proved to be much milder than the shocks that were actually experienced, and the strategy of 'originate and distribute' implied that the mortgage and other debt originators had no interest in any due diligence as they intended to package and sell the debt to other investors.
Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 96
Which of the following data sources are expected to influence operational risk capital under the AMA:
I. Internal Loss Data (ILD)
II. External Loss Data (ELD)
III. Scenario Data (SD)
IV. Business Environment and Internal Control Factors (BEICF)
- A. I and II
- B. III only
- C. All of the above
- D. I, II and III only
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
All four data sources are expected to be utilized as inputs as appropriate for operational risk calculations under the advanced measurement approach. Of these, the last one, BEICF, is slightly different from the rest as it does not yield data points that become the basis of curve fitting or other statistical computions underlying capital calculations. It includes items such as KRIs, risk assessments etc and allow the risk manager to assess the qualitative aspects of loss data.
NEW QUESTION 97
Which of the following statements is true:
I. Basel II requires banks to conduct stress testing in respect of their credit exposures in addition to stress testing for market risk exposures II. Basel II requires pooled probabilities of default (and not individual PDs for each exposure) to be used for credit risk capital calculations
- A. Neither statement is true
- B. II
- C. I
- D. I & II
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The correct answer is choice 'b'
Both statements are accurate. Basel II requires pooled probabilities of default to be applied to risk buckets that contain similar exposures. Also, stress testing is mandatory for both market and credit risk.
NEW QUESTION 98
In respect of operational risk capital calculations, the Basel II accord recommends a confidence level and time horizon of:
- A. 99.9% confidence level over a 10 day time horizon
- B. 99.9% confidence level over a 1 year time horizon
- C. 99% confidence level over a 1 year time horizon
- D. 99% confidence level over a 10 year time horizon
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'd' represents the Basel II requirement, all other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION 99
A corporate bond maturing in 1 year yields 8.5% per year, while a similar treasury bond yields 4%. What is the probability of default for the corporate bond assuming the recovery rate is zero?
- A. 4.15%
- B. 4.50%
- C. 8.50%
- D. Cannot be determined from the given information
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The probability of default would make the future cash flows from both the bonds identical. If p be the probability of default, the cash flows from the risky corporate bond would be
= (cash flows in the event of default x probability of default) + (cash flows without default x (1 - probability of default))
=> p*0 + (1 - p)*(1 + 8.5%) = (1 - p)*1.085.
The cash flows from the treasury bond would be 1.04. These two should be equal, ie,
1.04 = (1- p)*1.085, implying p = 4.15%.
(Note: The above is a simplification intended for the exam. In reality investors would demand a 'credit risk premium' for the corporate bond over and above the expected default loss rate. They are unlikely to be happy with just being compensated with exactly the expected default loss rate plus the risk-fre rate because the expected default loss rate itself is uncertain. They would demand some premium over and above what the default rate alone might mathematically imply above the risk free rate. In this question, this credit risk premium is ignored.)
NEW QUESTION 100
Which of the following measures can be used to reduce settlement risks:
- A. escrow arrangements using a central clearing house
- B. increasing the timing differences between the two legs of the transaction
- C. all of the above
- D. providing for physical delivery instead of netted cash settlements
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
increasing the timing differences between the two legs of the transaction will increase settlement risk and not reduce it. Using escrow arrangements, such as central clearing houses to settle transactions (eg the DTCC in the United States) reduces settlement risk. Cash settlements based on netting arrangements reduce settlement risk, while physical delivery combined with gross cash payments increase it.
Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 101
For a FX forward contract, what would be the worst time for a counterparty to default (in terms of the maximum likely credit exposure)
- A. At maturity
- B. Roughly three-quarters of the way towards maturity
- C. Right after inception
- D. Indeterminate from the given information
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
With the passage of time, the range of possible values the FX contract can take increases. Therefore the maximum value of the contract, which is when the credit risk would be maximum, would be at maturity. (Note that this is different than an interest rate swap whose value at maturity approaches zero.) Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer and the others are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION 102
An assumption regarding the absence of ratings momentum is referred to as:
- A. Markov property
- B. Time invariance
- C. Herstatt risk
- D. Ratings stability
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'c' is the correct answer. The Markov property is the assumption that there is no ratings momentum, and that transition probabilities are dependent only upon where the rating currently is and where it is going to.
Where it has come from, or what the past changes in ratings have been, have no effect on the transition probabilities. ('Herstatt risk' refers to settlement risk, and is irrelevant.)
NEW QUESTION 103
Which of the following is not a risk faced by a bank from holding a portfolio of residential mortgages?
- A. The risk that mortgage interest rates will rise in the future
- B. The risk that CDS spreads on the bank's debt will rise making funding more expensive
- C. The risk that the homeowners will not be able to pay their mortgage when they are due
- D. The risk that the homeowners will pay the mortgage off before they are due
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'd' represents a risk that does not arise from its holdings of mortgages. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
All the other risks identified are correct - the bank faces interest rate, default and prepayment risks on its mortgages.
NEW QUESTION 104
What is the combined VaR of two securities that are perfectly positively correlated.
- A. The sum of the individual VaRs of the two securities.
- B. Combined VaR cannot be derived using the available information.
- C. The root of the sum of squares of the individual VaRs of the two securities.
- D. The difference of the two VaRs.
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Choice 'b' is the correct answer. When two securities have a correlation of +1, they are effectively the same security. In such cases, the standard deviations of the two securities are additive, which means the VaRs can simply be added together to get the combined VaR. All the other choices are incorrect.
Choice 'c' in particular would have been correct if the securities were completely uncorrelated, ie if they had a correlation of zero.
Choice 'a' would have been correct if their correlation were -1.
NEW QUESTION 105
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Shocks to risk factors should be relative rather than absolute if we wish to avoid a change in the sign of the risk factor.
II. Interest rate shocks are generally modeled as absolute shocks.
III. Shocks to volatility are generally modeled as absolute shocks.
IV. Shocks to market spreads are generally modeled as relative shocks.
- A. II only
- B. I, II and III
- C. I and II
- D. II and IV
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Suppose during a historical event interest rates rose from 2% to 2.25%. This can be understood as a change of either 25 basis points, or a change of 12.5%. When applied to the current portfolio when interest rates are
0.50%, we may model this 'shock' as either a rise to 0.75%, or 0.5625% (ie a rise of 12.5% over existing levels). The former is called an absolute shock, and the latter a relative shock.
I is true as relative shocks can never change the sign of a risk factor. Yet interest rate changes are modeled as absolute changes as relative shocks can get artificially amplified or attenuated if the current level of interest rates is too different from those that existed during the crisis being modeled. Therefore II is true. III and IV are false as volatility is modeled as a relative shock and spreads are modeled as absolute shocks.
NEW QUESTION 106
Which of the following is not an approach proposed by the Basel II framework to compute operational risk capital?
- A. Basic indicator approach
- B. Factor based approach
- C. Standardized approach
- D. Advanced measurement approach
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Basel II proposes three approaches to compute operational risk capital - the basic indicator approach (BIA), the standardized approach (SIA) and the advanced measurement approach (AMA). There is no operational risk approach called the factor based approach.
NEW QUESTION 107
Which of the following steps are required for computing the total loss distribution for a bank for operational risk once individual UoM level loss distributions have been computed from the underlhying frequency and severity curves:
I. Simulate number of losses based on the frequency distribution
II. Simulate the dollar value of the losses from the severity distribution III. Simulate random number from the copula used to model dependence between the UoMs IV. Compute dependent losses from aggregate distribution curves
- A. All of the above
- B. None of the above
- C. I and II
- D. III and IV
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
A recap would be in order here: calculating operational risk capital is a multi-step process.
First, we fit curves to estimate the parameters to our chosen distribution types for frequency (eg, Poisson), and severity (eg, lognormal). Note that these curves are fitted at the UoM level - which is the lowest level of granularity at which modeling is carried out. Since there are many UoMs, there are are many frequency and severity distributions. However what we are interested in is the loss distribution for the entire bank from which the 99.9th percentile loss can be calculated. From the multiple frequency and severity distributions we have calculated, this becomes a two step process:
- Step 1: Calculate the aggregate loss distribution for each UoM. Each loss distribution is based upon and underlying frequency and severity distribution.
- Step 2: Combine the multiple loss distributions after considering the dependence between the different UoMs. The 'dependence' recognizes that the various UoMs are not completely independent, ie the loss distributions are not additive, and that there is a sort of diversification benefit in the sense that not all types of losses can occur at once and the joint probabilities of the different losses make the sum less than the sum of the parts.
Step 1 requires simulating a number, say n, of the number of losses that occur in a given year from a frequency distribution. Then n losses are picked from the severity distribution, and the total loss for the year is a summation of these losses. This becomes one data point. This process of simulating the number of losses and then identifying that number of losses is carried out a large number of times to get the aggregate loss distribution for a UoM.
Step 2 requires taking the different loss distributions from Step 1 and combining them considering the dependence between the events. The correlations between the losses are described by a 'copula', and combined together mathematically to get a single loss distribution for the entire bank. This allows the 99.9th percentile loss to be calculated.
NEW QUESTION 108
A bank extends a loan of $1m to a home buyer to buy a house currently worth $1.5m, with the house serving as the collateral. The volatility of returns (assumed normally distributed) on house prices in that neighborhood is assessed at 10% annually. The expected probability of default of the home buyer is 5%.
What is the probability that the bank will recover less than the principal advanced on this loan; assuming the probability of the home buyer's default is independent of the value of the house?
- A. 0
- B. More than 5%
- C. More than 1%
- D. Less than 1%
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
The bank will not be able to recover the principal advanced on this loan if both the home buyer defaults, and the house value falls to less than $1m, ie the price moves adversely by more than $500k, which is
$-500k/$150k = -3.33. (Note that 150k is the 1 year volatility in dollars, ie $1.5m * 10%).
The probability of both these things happening together is just the product of the two probabilities, one of which we know to be 5%. The other is also certainly a small number, and intuitively it is clear that the probability of both the things happening together will be less than 1%.
For a more precise answer, we can calculate the probability of the house price falling by 3.33 standard deviations by calculating the area under the standard normal curve to the left of -3.33. This indeed is a very small number (actually equal to NORMSINV(-3.33)=0.00043), which when multiplied by the probability of default of the home buyer at 5% is certainly going to be less than 1%. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 109
Which of the following statements are true:
I. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is equal to the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
II. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is less than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
III. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is greater than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
IV. The unexpected loss for the portfolio is driven by the unexpected losses of the individual loans in the portfolio and the default correlation between these loans.
- A. I and II
- B. I, II and III
- C. II and IV
- D. III and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Unexpected losses (UEL) for individual loans in a portfolio will always sum to greater than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio (unless all the loans are correlated in such a way that they default together).
This is akin to the 'diversification effect' in market risk, in other words, not all the obligors would default together. So the UEL for the portfolio will always be less than the sum of the UELs for individual loans.
Therefore statement III is true.This 'diversification effect' will be affected by the default correlations between the obligors, in cases where the probability of various obligors defaulting together is low, the UEL for the portfolio would be much less than the UEL for the individual loans. Hence statement IV is true.I and II are false for the reasons explained above.
NEW QUESTION 110
Which of the following are valid objectives of a reverse stress test:
I. Ensure that a firm can survive for long enough after risks have materialized for it to either regain market confidence, restructure or be sold, or be closed down in an orderly manner, II. Discover the vulnerabilities of the current business plan, III. Better integrate business and capital planning, IV. Create a 'zero-failure' environment at the systemic level in the financial sector
- A. All of the above
- B. I, II and III
- C. I and IV
- D. II and III
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Statement I is true. According to the statement CP08/24: Stress and scenario testing (December 2008) issued by the FSA in the UK, an underlying objective of reverse stress tests is to ensure that a firm can survive long enough after risks have crystallized for one of the following to occur:
- the market decides that its lack of confidence is unfounded and recommences transacting with the firm;
- the firm down-sizes and re-structures its business;
- the firm is taken over, or its business is transferred in an orderly manner; or
- public authorities take the firm over, or wind down its business in an orderly manner.
Statement II and III are true. The same statement clarifies the intention of the reverse stress testing requirement, which is to encourage firms to: explore more fully the vulnerabilities of theirbusiness model (including 'tail risks'); make decisions that better integrate business and capital planning; and improve their contingency planning.
Statement IV is incorrect. Since the question is asking for the statement which is NOT an objective for reverse stress tests, Choice 'b' is the correct answer. The same statement clarifies that the introduction of a reverse-stress test requirement should not be interpreted as indicating that the FSA is pursuing a 'zero-failure' policy. In the FSA's view, such a policy is neither possible, nor desirable.
NEW QUESTION 111
Which of the following risks were not covered in detail in most stress tests prior to the current crisis:
I. The behavior of complex structured products under stressed liquidity conditions II. Pipeline or securitization risk III. Basis risk in relation to hedging strategies IV. Counterparty credit risk
V. Contingent risks
VI. Funding liquidity risk
- A. II, III and V
- B. All of the above
- C. I, IV and VI
- D. I, II, III, IV and VI
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
The BCBS publication 'Principles for sound stress testing practices and supervision' (May 2009) identifies all of the above as risks that were covered in insufficient detail in most stress tests prior to the current crisis.
Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
For the PRM exam, you should have read this document. You should also be familiar with all the above risk types as being contributors to the crisis, and know what each of these mean.
NEW QUESTION 112
If A and B be two uncorrelated securities, VaR(A) and VaR(B) be their values-at-risk, then which of the following is true for a portfolio that includes A and B in any proportion. Assume the prices of A and B are log-normally distributed.
- A. VaR(A+B) = VaR(A) + VaR(B)
- B. The combined VaR cannot be predicted till the correlation is known
- C. VaR(A+B) > VaR(A) + VaR(B)
- D. VaR(A+B) < VaR(A) + VaR(B)
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
First of all, if prices are lognormally distributed, that implies the returns (which are equal to the log of prices) are normally distributed. To say that prices are lognormally distributed is just another way of saying that returns are normally distributed.
Since the correlation between the two securities is zero, this means their variances can be added. But standard deviations, or volatilities cannot be added (they will be the square root of sum of variances). VaR is nothing but a multiple of standard deviation, and therefore it is not additive if correlations are anything other than 1 (ie perfect positive, which would imply we are dealing with the same asset). Therefore VaR(A+B)=SQRT(VaR(A)^2 + VaR(B)^2). This implies the combined VaR of a portfolio with these two securities will be less than the sum of VaRs of the two individual securities.
Thus Choice 'c' is the correct answer and the other choices are wrong.
NEW QUESTION 113
When combining separate bottom up estimates of market, credit and operational risk measures, a most conservative economic capital estimate results from which of the following assumptions:
- A. Assuming that market, credit and operational risk estimates are perfectly positively correlated
- B. Assuming that the resulting distributions have a correlation between 0 and 1
- C. Assuming that market, credit and operational risk estimates are uncorrelated
- D. Assuming that market, credit and operational risk estimates are perfectly negatively correlated
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
If the risks are considered perfectly positively correlated, ie assumed to have a correlation equal to 1, the standard deviations can simply be added together. This gives the most conservative estimate of combined risk for capital calculation purposes. In practice, this is the assumption used most often.
If risks are uncorrelated, ie correlation is assumed to be zero, variances can be added or the standard deviation is the root of the sum of the squares of the individual standard deviations. This obviously gives a number lower than that given when correlation is assumed to be +1.
Similarly, assumptions of negative correlation, or any correlation other than +1 will give a standard deviation number that is smaller and therefore less conservative. Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 114
Which of the following are valid approaches for extreme value analysis given a dataset:
I. The Block Maxima approach
II. Least squares approach
III. Maximum likelihood approach
IV. Peak-over-thresholds approach
- A. All of the above
- B. I, III and IV
- C. I and IV
- D. II and III
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
For EVT, we use the block maxima or the peaks-over-threshold methods. These provide us the data points that can be fitted to a GEV distribution.
Least squares and maximum likelihood are methods that are used for curve fitting, and they have a variety of applications across risk management.
NEW QUESTION 115
Which of the following is not a parameter to be determined by the risk manager that affects the level of economic credit capital:
- A. Confidence level
- B. Risk horizon
- C. Definition of credit losses
- D. Probability of default
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Three parameters define economic credit capital: the risk horizon, ie the time horizon over which the risk is being assessed; the confidence level, ie the quintile of the loss distribution; and the definition of credit losses, ie whether mark-to-market losses are considered in addition to default-only losses. The probability of default is not a parameter within the control of the risk manager, but an input into the capital calculation process that he has to estimate. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION 116
Which of the following are true:
I. The total of the component VaRs for all components of a portfolio equals the portfolio VaR.
II. The total of the incremental VaRs for each position in a portfolio equals the portfolio VaR.
III. Marginal VaR and incremental VaR are identical for a $1 change in the portfolio.
IV. The VaR for individual components of a portfolio is sub-additive, ie the portfolio VaR is less than (or in extreme cases equal to) the sum of the individual VaRs.
V. The component VaR for individual components of a portfolio is sub-additive, ie the portfolio VaR is less than the sum of the individual component VaRs.
- A. I and II
- B. II and V
- C. I, III and IV
- D. II and IV
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Statement I is true - component VaR for individual assets in the portfolio add up to the total VaR for the portfolio. This property makes component VaR extremely useful for risk disaggregation and allocation.
Stateent II is incorrect, the incremental VaRs for the positions in a portfolio do not add up to the portfolio VaR, in fact their sum would be greater.
Statement III is correct. Marginal VaR for an asset or position in the portfolio is by definition the change in the VaR as a result of a $1 change in that position. Incremental VaR is the change in the VaR for a portfolio from a new position added to the portfolio - and if that position is $1, it would be identical to the marginal VaR.
Statement IV is correct, VaR is sub-additive due to the diversification effect. Adding up the VaRs for all the positions in a portfolio will add up to more than the VaR for the portfolio as a whole (unless all the positions are 100% correlated, which effectively would mean they are all identical securities which means the portfolio has only one asset).
Statement V is in incorrect. As explained for Statement I above, component VaR adds up to the VaR for the portfolio.
NEW QUESTION 117
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